Brighton vs Newcastle Preview, Betting Tips and Odds

Brighton vs Newcastle Preview, Betting Tips and Odds

Brighton vs Newcastle predictions for Saturday’s Premier League clash at the Amex Stadium.

Brighton made to wait
Brighton had looked to book their Premier League place in midweek when they went to Southampton, but a 1-1 draw hasn’t done enough to get them away from the bottom three. However, their home clash with Newcastle on Monday is the perfect opportunity for Graham Potter’s men to lift themselves clear of the survival battle.

The Seagulls have done what so many sides have failed to do over the years, switching to a more ambitious style while holding onto Premier League safety. The appointment of the underrated Potter as manager has helped them switch to this more passing style. Last season they had played the fourth-fewest short passes per game of any top-flight side, this term only the big six and Leicester have made more.

That switch must bring the envy of Newcastle fans, who are still watching functional football with no sign of their takeover being confirmed. Hopefully, they don’t realise the difference in output between the two big-money strikers here, with Brighton’s Neal Maupay scoring five-times as many as Joelinton, despite costing half as much.

Injury-hit Magpies lack intensity
Newcastle has allowed 19.7 opposition passes per defensive action on average in the Premier League this campaign (PPDA), the most of any side. That means they’re the less aggressive side in the division when it comes to pressing, making the Magpies a more reactionary team who prefer to sit deep. Given that Newcastle has lost their last three Premier League matches, shipping 10 goals across those defeats, it doesn’t seem to be working out for them.

They already have an issue with the intensity of their tactical style, while the visitors have clearly dropped off in their recent displays. The Magpies caught the eye with some strong form after the restart, but since they crossed the 40-point park with a 4-1 win at Bournemouth, they’ve looked sloppy. That stared with a 2-2 draw with West Ham, while it’s been followed by those three defeats.

Bruce has admitted that their schedule has hit them hard, with up to eight absentees here. Not only are they short in defence, but key winger Allan Saint-Maximin is among those who are set to miss out. That has left Newcastle set for another disappointing end to the campaign. Newcastle has only won their final away game in two of their 24 Premier League seasons (D9 L13).

Brighton can take advantage
The Seagulls look good to continue their strong record against this week’s visitors. Newcastle has won just one of their last seven away games against Brighton in all competitions (D2 L4). Meanwhile, Brighton are unbeaten in all five of their Premier League meetings with Newcastle (W2 D3). That makes it the perfect chance for them to cross the 40-point barrier.

The hosts have lost to Liverpool, Man City and United in their last three home games. However, they were able to beat Arsenal in their other home match since the restart. Five of their seven home defeats have come against the top eight, while they meet a side who have been dreadful on the road throughout the current campaign. The Magpies have lost 11 of 18 trips, a record which hasn’t improved when they’ve met lower-ranked teams.

Newcastle has already lost three of four trips to the bottom four, including a 2-1 loss at Watford in their last outing on the road. We are backing a repeat of that scoreline as our correct score prediction here, with Brighton conceding in their last eight at the Amex. Meanwhile, we’re backing Brighton to take the points, with this vulnerable Newcastle side struggling to match the motivation of the sides with something to play for.

Key battle: Neal Maupay vs Federico Fernandez
Newcastle’s injury crisis has caused huge problems for the club at the back. They are going to have to ask a lot of centre-half Federico Fernandez, who is likely to be playing alongside a makeshift defender or a youth player. Four potential partners for him have been ruled out, so it is the Argentine who will be tasked with keeping Brighton’s Maupay quiet.

The forward has gone under the radar this season, but he’s played a big part in keeping Brighton safe. He hit double figures for the season with a strike at Southampton in midweek, while the forward could add to that given the state of this Newcastle backline.

The visitors are far from the most organised side anyway. They’ve conceded 15 shots per game on average, while they’ve conceded more set-piece goals than any other Premier League side. Maupay is a danger in the box at set-plays, while he’s the kind of goalscorer who will take opportunities however they come. Given the state of the side, he’s facing this week, Maupay is our anytime goalscorer prediction for this clash.

Brighton vs Newcastle team news
The Seagulls are likely to go for this one with a 4-3-2-1 system, offering midfield support for Maupay. Defender Adam Webster is their biggest concern, with the old pairing of Shane Duffy and Lewis Dunk likely to start at the heart of the Brighton defence as a result.

Brighton predicted line-up: Ryan – Lamptey, Duffy, Dunk, Burn – Bissouma, Stephens, Propper – Mooy, Troussard – Maupay

Steve Bruce has plenty of injury concerns as he looks to juggle his remaining players for their final two games. Expect to see some fresh faces from the youth side filling out the bench, with six doubtful players for the Magpies, joining absentees Fabian Schar and Andy Carroll. That’s left Newcastle applying for permission to play Kelland Watts at centre-half after his two loan spells away from the club.

Newcastle predicted line-up: Dubravka – Yedlin, Watts, Fernandez, Rose – Ritchie, Shelvey, Bentaleb, Joelinton – Almiron – Gayle
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