Paraguay vs France: World Cup Round of 16 Preview, Odds and Prediction
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How They Got Here
Paraguay produced one of the tournament's defining moments in the Round of 32, eliminating four-time champions Germany on penalties after a 1-1 draw through extra time — Julio Enciso's header having cancelled out an early German lead. It was Paraguay's first World Cup knockout win since 2010, and one of the biggest upsets of the competition given the 31-place gap between the sides in FIFA's rankings.
France, by contrast, cruised. Kylian Mbappé scored twice and Bradley Barcola added a third in a comfortable 3-0 win over Sweden, extending a run that has now brought four wins from four matches and 13 goals scored. Les Bleus topped their group unbeaten before that statement knockout performance.
The gap in pedigree is stark: France entered the tournament ranked third in the world, Paraguay 41st — the largest ranking gap of any remaining Round of 16 tie. A Paraguay win would rank among the biggest upsets in World Cup knockout history.
Recent Form
Paraguay advanced from a group containing co-hosts USA, Turkey and Australia, finishing third on goal difference after criteria for the eight best third-placed teams: a 4-1 opening defeat to the USA, a 1-0 win over Turkey, and a goalless draw with Australia, before the shootout win over Germany.
France won Group I with a perfect record, beating Senegal, Iraq and Norway, before dispatching Sweden in the last 32.
Head-to-Head
France and Paraguay have met twice before at the World Cup, and France have won both: 7-3 in a nine-goal thriller at the 1958 tournament, and 1-0 via a Laurent Blanc golden goal in the 1998 Round of 16 — a result that sent France on their way to a maiden world title. France remain unbeaten against Paraguay in all meetings between the sides.
Team News and Expected Lineups
Paraguay's build-up has been complicated by fitness concerns. Winger Julio Enciso was forced off against Germany and his availability for Saturday is uncertain, while defender Omar Alderete missed the Germany match with a knee injury and is also a doubt. Gustavo Alfaro is expected to set his side up in a compact 4-4-2, built around goalkeeper Orlando Gill and captain Gustavo Gómez in defence, with Miguel Almirón and Gabriel Ávalos providing the main attacking threat.
France have no fresh injury concerns after their win over Sweden. Didier Deschamps is expected to continue with Mike Maignan in goal behind a back four of Jules Koundé, William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano and Lucas Digne, with Aurélien Tchouaméni and Adrien Rabiot screening the midfield and Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola supporting Mbappé.
Odds and Prediction
Bookmakers have installed France as prohibitive favourites. As of odds published on June 30, France were priced at around -600 to win in normal time with several major sportsbooks, with a draw at +525 and a Paraguay win at +2000 — implied probabilities of roughly 86%, 16% and 5% respectively. In separate markets on which side progresses (allowing for extra time and penalties), France were as short as -1600 to -2000 with Paraguay as long as +850 to +900.
Paraguay's underlying numbers add some nuance: their winning goal against Germany came from a low-probability chance, and they have yet to face a top-five side by rating this tournament. Analysts covering the match have generally leaned toward a comfortable French win, with several tipping a second consecutive clean sheet for Deschamps' side.
The winner advances to face either Canada or Morocco in the quarter-finals on July 9.
How to Watch
Paraguay vs France will be shown by official World Cup broadcasters in each territory, including FOX and FOX One in the United States. UK viewers should check listings closer to kick-off. As with all sports betting content, odds are subject to change and any wagering should be done through licensed, regulated operators in your jurisdiction.
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