Spain vs Belgium: World Cup Quarter-Final Preview, Odds and Prediction
Both sides arrived here in very different fashion. Spain edged past Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16, Mikel Merino heading home a stoppage-time winner in a match Luis de la Fuente's side otherwise controlled without ever finding a breakthrough. The result also closed out Cristiano Ronaldo's international career: Portugal's captain confirmed beforehand that this would be his last World Cup, and said afterward he was leaving with "a clear conscience," having become the first player to score in six different World Cups without ever adding the one trophy missing from his collection.
Belgium, meanwhile, produced their most complete performance of the tournament, hammering co-hosts the United States 4-1 in Seattle, with Charles De Ketelaere scoring twice after coming into the side in place of Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku.
Odds and Betting Tips
Spain have opened as clear favourites, with BetMGM pricing them at around -155 to win in regulation, similar to the picture across most major sportsbooks.
Spain vs Belgium 1X2
| 1 (Spain) | X (Draw) | 2 (Belgium) |
|---|---|---|
| 1.63 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
Both Teams to Score
| Yes | No |
|---|---|
| 2.50 | 1.53 |
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|
| 2.20 | 1.67 |
Correct Score (indicative)
| Prediction | Approx. Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain 1-0 Belgium | 5.50 |
Odds are a snapshot from the days before kick-off and will move, so check current prices with a licensed operator before betting.
Spain's Case
Spain have not conceded a goal in five matches, a run that survived its toughest examination yet against Ronaldo's Portugal. Unai Simon has gone well over 500 minutes without picking the ball out of his own net, protected by a back line built around Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsi and Marc Cucurella. Going forward, Mikel Oyarzabal has led the scoring with four goals and Lamine Yamal, who made his World Cup debut this tournament, continues to cause problems for defenders with his pace and directness. Winger Nico Williams was a notable absence from the starting lineup against Portugal and his availability for the quarter-final is one to watch.
Belgium's Case
Belgium's route here has been far bumpier: a stumbling group stage draw with Egypt and Iran, a stunning extra-time comeback from 2-0 down against Senegal, and then, finally, their best performance of the tournament against the USA. Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans remain the heartbeat of the side when selected, while De Ketelaere's emergence gives Rudi Garcia a genuine attacking option even without his more established stars in the side. It's a Belgian core that reached the semi-finals in 2018 with largely the same spine, Courtois, De Bruyne and Tielemans among them, and this is being described as one last shot at a title for that generation.
Head-to-Head
Spain and Belgium have met 22 times across all competitions, and Spain hold a clear historical edge, though their World Cup history together is short: this is only the third meeting between the two at a World Cup, following Belgium's penalty-shootout win in the 1986 quarter-final and Spain's 2-1 revenge in the 1990 group stage.
| Games won by Spain | Games drawn | Games won by Belgium |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 5 | 5 |
Spain have not lost to Belgium in regulation time since that 1986 defeat, going seven wins and one draw across their last eight meetings, most recently a 2-0 friendly win in 2016.
Recent Form
Spain (W-W-W-W-D)
| Date | Match | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2026 | Spain vs Portugal | W | 1-0 |
| 2 Jul 2026 | Spain vs Austria | W | 3-0 |
| 26 Jun 2026 | Spain vs Uruguay | W | 1-0 |
| 21 Jun 2026 | Spain vs Saudi Arabia | W | 4-0 |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Spain vs Cape Verde | D | 0-0 |
Belgium (W-W-W-D-D)
| Date | Match | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2026 | USA vs Belgium | W | 1-4 |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Belgium vs Senegal | W | 3-2 (AET) |
| 26 Jun 2026 | New Zealand vs Belgium | W | 1-5 |
| 21 Jun 2026 | Belgium vs Iran | D | 0-0 |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Belgium vs Egypt | D | 1-1 |
Predicted Lineups
Spain (4-3-3, Luis de la Fuente)
GK: Unai SimĆ³n | RB: Marcos Llorente | CB: Aymeric Laporte | CB: Pau CubarsĆ | LB: Marc Cucurella | CM: Rodri | CM: Pedri | CM: Dani Olmo | RW: Lamine Yamal | ST: Mikel Oyarzabal | LW: Ćlex Baena
Belgium (4-2-3-1, Rudi Garcia)
GK: Thibaut Courtois | RB: Timothy Castagne | CB: Nathan Ngoy | CB: Brandon Mechele | LB: Maxim De Cuyper | CM: Youri Tielemans | CM: Amadou Onana | RW: Leandro Trossard | AM: Kevin De Bruyne (C) | LW: JƩrƩmy Doku | ST: Charles De Ketelaere
What's at Stake
The winner advances to a semi-final in Arlington, Texas, on July 14 against the winner of France's quarter-final with Morocco on July 9. Spain have not been this far since winning the tournament in 2010; Belgium have not reached a semi-final since their third-place finish in 2018.
Prediction
Spain's defensive record and control in midfield make them deserved favourites, but Belgium's individual quality, De Bruyne's passing range and De Ketelaere's new-found scoring touch in particular, gives them a route to causing an upset if Spain's shutout streak finally cracks. A narrow Spain win looks the most likely outcome, with the game unlikely to be won by much.
How to Watch
Check local broadcasters and official streaming platforms in your region for coverage. As with all sports betting content, only wager through licensed, regulated operators in your jurisdiction.
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