USA vs Belgium: World Cup Round of 16 Preview, Odds and Prediction

The World Cup Round of 16 delivers one of its most loaded ties yet on Monday, July 6, when host nation USA face Belgium at Lumen Field in Seattle. Kick-off is at 8:00pm ET (5:00pm local time), with the winner advancing to the quarter-finals.

The two sides arrive by very different routes. The USA topped Group D and then ground out a 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32, though they will be without leading scorer Folarin Balogun, sent off in that match and now suspended. Belgium needed extra time to see off Senegal 3-2, coming back from 2-0 down inside the final five minutes of normal time before Youri Tielemans converted a 125th-minute penalty to complete the turnaround.

For the USA, this is a chance to settle a score that has lingered for twelve years. Belgium eliminated them at this exact stage of the 2014 World Cup, winning 2-1 after extra time in a match remembered mainly for a 16-save performance from USA goalkeeper Tim Howard. For Belgium's ageing golden generation, built around Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Thibaut Courtois, it is another chance to prove there is still a deep run left in them.

Odds and Betting Tips

France, Argentina and the usual contenders aside, this is being read as one of the tightest ties of the round. Bookmakers have the USA and Belgium separated by only a few points on the moneyline, with the draw priced as a live outcome given how close the sides are.

USA vs Belgium 1X2

1 (USA)	X (Draw)	2 (Belgium)
2.55	3.45	2.80

Double Chance

1X	12	X2
1.25	2.10	1.80

Both Teams to Score

Yes	No
1.59	2.35

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
1.77	2.05

Odds are a snapshot taken close to kick-off and will move before the match, so check current prices with your bookmaker before placing anything, and only bet through licensed, regulated operators in your jurisdiction.

Why the USA Are Fancied at Home

Mauricio Pochettino's side have topped their World Cup group for the first time since 2010, and looked one of the tournament's more consistent teams doing it: a 4-1 opening win over Paraguay, a 2-0 win over Australia, and only a narrow 3-2 loss to Turkey before the 2-0 win over Bosnia in the last 32. Balogun's suspension is a genuine blow, given his three goals this tournament, but Christian Pulisic has been the USA's central creative outlet throughout and is expected to lead the attack in his absence, likely alongside Ricardo Pepi up front. Playing in front of a home crowd in Seattle, and with fresher legs than a Belgium side who needed extra time in their last outing, gives the hosts a case as the narrow favourites.

Belgium's Case

Belgium's route through the group stage was unconvincing before it suddenly wasn't. Draws with Egypt and Iran left them needing a big performance on the final matchday, which they delivered with a 5-1 win over New Zealand to top Group G. Across those four matches they have scored nine goals and conceded four, with the Senegal comeback showing there is still real quality and nerve in this squad when it matters. De Bruyne and Tielemans continue to dictate games from midfield, Lukaku remains Belgium's record scorer and talisman, and their threat from set pieces has been among the best in the tournament. The obvious concern is legs: this is a squad in the later stages of its most talented generation, and the 120 minutes required against Senegal came only three days before facing the USA.

Head-to-Head

The USA and Belgium have met seven times in all competitions, and the record is heavily lopsided. The USA's only win came in their very first meeting, a 3-0 victory at the 1930 World Cup, the USA's first ever World Cup match. Belgium have won every meeting since, including the 2014 World Cup last-16 tie and a 5-2 friendly win as recently as March this year.

Games won by USA	Games drawn	Games won by Belgium
1	0	6

Previous meetings

Date	Match	Result	Competition
13 July 1930	USA vs Belgium	USA 3-0 Belgium	FIFA World Cup
22 April 1995	Belgium vs USA	Belgium 1-0 USA	International Friendly
25 February 1998	Belgium vs USA	Belgium 2-0 USA	International Friendly
6 September 2011	Belgium vs USA	Belgium 1-0 USA	International Friendly
29 May 2013	USA vs Belgium	Belgium 4-2 USA	International Friendly
1 July 2014	Belgium vs USA	Belgium 2-1 USA (AET)	FIFA World Cup (Round of 16)
28 March 2026	USA vs Belgium	Belgium 5-2 USA	International Friendly

Recent Form

USA (W-L-W-W)

Date	Match	Result	Score	Competition
1 Jul 2026	USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	W	2-0	FIFA World Cup
25 Jun 2026	USA vs Turkey	L	2-3	FIFA World Cup
19 Jun 2026	USA vs Australia	W	2-0	FIFA World Cup
12 Jun 2026	USA vs Paraguay	W	4-1	FIFA World Cup
6 Jun 2026	USA vs Germany	L	1-2	International Friendly

Belgium (D-D-W-W)

Date	Match	Result	Score	Competition
1 Jul 2026	Belgium vs Senegal	W	3-2 (AET)	FIFA World Cup
26 Jun 2026	Belgium vs New Zealand	W	5-1	FIFA World Cup
21 Jun 2026	Belgium vs Iran	D	0-0	FIFA World Cup
15 Jun 2026	Belgium vs Egypt	D	1-1	FIFA World Cup
6 Jun 2026	Belgium vs Tunisia	W	5-0	International Friendly

Predicted Lineups

USA (4-2-3-1, Mauricio Pochettino)

With Balogun suspended, Pepi is the likely starting striker, while Pochettino is expected to stick with an aggressive, high-pressing approach built around Pulisic's creativity and pace out wide from Weah and Aaronson.

Belgium (4-2-3-1, Rudi Garcia)

Lukaku is expected to lead the line again after his goal against Senegal, with De Bruyne and Tielemans controlling tempo through the middle.

Prediction

Belgium have won the last six meetings between these sides and go in with more individual quality, but they also arrive with less recovery time after 120 minutes against Senegal, and the USA have home advantage in what will be a raucous Lumen Field. A tight, cagey match feels likely, with the hosts given a slight edge to finally end their 96-year wait for a second win over the Red Devils.

How to Watch

USA vs Belgium airs in the United States on FOX, FOX One and FOX Deportes. Check local broadcasters and streaming platforms for coverage in other countries, and follow FIFA.com for team news, injury updates and the latest fixture information throughout the tournament.

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