Who Are the Favourites for the 2026 World Cup?

With the semi-finals set, France, Spain, England and Argentina are the four teams left standing, and for the first time in World Cup history, all four of the tournament's top four-ranked nations before a ball was kicked have made it this far. Bookmakers have a clear view of the pecking order, with one notable exception: exactly who ranks second behind France depends on which sportsbook you ask.

Current Odds to Win the World Cup

Team	Odds (Decimal)	Odds (American)
France	~2.40–2.50	+140 to +150
England	~4.10–4.40	+310 to +340
Spain	~4.30–4.40	+310 to +330
Argentina	~4.60–5.00	+360 to +400

France are the clear favourites across every major sportsbook, having strengthened from around +500 at the start of the tournament to as short as +140 after reaching the semi-finals without conceding a goal in any of their three knockout matches. Argentina, by contrast, are consistently priced as the outsiders of the final four. The genuinely open question is second place: FanDuel has England just ahead of Spain, while other books, including ESPN's tracked odds, have Spain marginally ahead of England. Either way, the market sees Spain and England as close to a coin flip for the "best of the rest" tag behind France.

Odds shift quickly this late in a tournament, so treat any specific number as a snapshot rather than fixed, and check current prices with a licensed operator before betting.

France: The Clear Favourites

Didier Deschamps' side have been the most dominant team of the knockout rounds, outscoring opponents 16-2 across six matches without a single loss. Their route to the semi-final has been a statement: a 3-0 win over Sweden in the Round of 32, a narrow 1-0 win over Paraguay in the Round of 16, and a comprehensive 2-0 win over Morocco in the quarter-final, Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé on target. Mbappé is tied with Lionel Messi for the tournament's scoring lead on eight goals and is the favourite to finish as top scorer. France face Spain in Dallas on Tuesday, July 14, in what oddsmakers view as the de facto final before the final, since the winner is expected to go in as favourites for the trophy itself.

Spain: Yet to Concede

Luis de la Fuente's Spain have conceded only once all tournament, a remarkable defensive record built around Rodri's leadership in midfield and the emerging partnership of Pedri and teenager Lamine Yamal further forward. They edged Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16 on a dramatic stoppage-time winner from substitute Mikel Merino, then beat Belgium 2-1 in the quarter-final to reach their second World Cup semi-final in history, their first since winning the tournament in 2010.

England: Building Momentum

England have needed late drama in each of their last two knockout rounds, coming from behind to beat Mexico 3-2 in the Round of 16 and needing extra time, courtesy of two Jude Bellingham goals, to see off Norway and Erling Haaland 2-1 in the quarter-final. Harry Kane continues to lead the line and the scoring charts for the Three Lions, and a win over Argentina in Atlanta on Wednesday, July 15, would take England to their first World Cup final since 1966.

Argentina: The Defending Champions

Lionel Scaloni's side have needed extra time twice in their last three matches, including a 3-1 win over ten-man Switzerland in the quarter-final after Breel Embolo's second-half red card. At 38, Messi remains the heartbeat of the team, level with Mbappé on eight goals and playing what many believe is his final World Cup. Argentina are priced as the clear outsiders of the final four, but they are also the reigning champions, and no side left in the tournament knows better how to win the moments that matter.

What's Next

• Semi-final 1: Spain vs France, Tuesday, July 14, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
• Semi-final 2: England vs Argentina, Wednesday, July 15, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

The winners meet in the final on July 19 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.